My personal opinion and my analysis leads me to bet on a continuation of the trend depreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar and also against FS. Why Because the market operators and investors have now included the fact that the Euro zone suffered a triple fragility of a political nature, design and appeal..

Third, by an apparent lack of attractiveness within the EU, since the Eurogroup does not collect that 16 states out of 27. Do not speak of the convergence criteria of the Maastricht Treaty (1992), openly flouted today to justify this lack of success…

So yes, I believe strongly in a long and painful depreciation of Euro against U.S. dollar, reaching the goal-line of $ 0.67 per euro, either in its quotation of launch. Why then this value as traders like round numbers, and the memory market is merciless, it must be remembered peak against the U.S. dollar late DEM DEM 1985-3 precisely, which is now below the target value above, since we moved from a quotation in the uncertain to the certain with the Euro…

SF cons too, I bet on a sharp depreciation of the euro to 1.250 SF, FS or 1.150 exaggeration on the short term. In the longer term, the coherence between EUR / USD and USD / CHF would lead to an over-target around the EUR / CHF!

So yes, I think we could expect a strong challenge to the single currency fictitious economically. The high risk of failure (partial or total) of Greece and / or other countries Club Med (then placed under supervision of the IMF as the UK in 1992) will lead the markets, lack of policy response in the face and will Common bail out these countries (cf. Germany), to continue to pull down the Euro, or until the defeat of the single currency, a pragmatic political solution Rescue (but outside the Treaty of Maastricht! )…

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